Projections of future population are essential in strategic planning, informing land use planning and the provision of infrastructure and services required to meet future needs.
Population projections provided by the NSW Department of Planning and Environment are based on assumptions that take into account trends for births, deaths and migration. These can change due to factors such as new technology (e.g. medical advancements which assist people to live longer and aid fertility), social attitudes (e.g. women having children later in life), and migration (overseas, interstate and within NSW).
The Department’s 2016 NSW Population Projections show that the State’s population will grow to 9.9 million people by 2036 (an increase of 2.71 million people over the period 2011-2036) as a result of natural increase and net migration. See image below. The majority of this growth will be within the Greater Sydney Region.
Mosman’s share of this growth will be small. Current projections are that by 2036 the municipality’s population will increase to 32,250 people (an additional 2,900 people over the period 2011-2036), at an average annual rate of change of 0.4%. The greatest increase will be in the 70 years and over age group, which will account for almost 20% of the Mosman population by 2036.
This week, urban planners from councils across Sydney attended a workshop run by the Department’s Housing and Population Insights Team on population projections and key trends across the Greater Sydney Region. The 2016 projections will soon be revised based on new census data and information provided by councils on local trends and circumstance.
The revised projections (to be issued next year) will inform key strategic work being undertaken by Council over the next 2-3 years, including the preparation of a Local Strategic Planning Statement and Housing Strategy.